Zombie Apocalypse

My Day Job

At my University job, one of my tasks is to evaluate risks and plan for events that can shut down our services. The reason why this is of concern, is that I run a heavily operational unit for a college that needs to function nearly 24/7. To make the planning fun and memorable, I have named each event after a cultural character.

• Godzilla Attack = earthquakes
• Kraken= flooding
• Alien Attack = power outages
• Ghost Rider = fire
• Zombie Apocalypse = viruses of pandemic proportions

This post is my current understanding of, and my personal planning for, the approaching Zombie Apocalypse, a coronavirus called COVID-19.

Current Zombie Situation

Is This a Pandemic?

The world is just at the beginning stages of this infection and WHO has not yet named it a pandemic. But what is a pandemic? A pandemic is a new disease (check), that has spread globally (check), is transmitted people-to-people (check), and has large scale casualties (not yet).

Certainly this outbreak is considered a pandemic by some, but the word “pandemic” is also emotionally and politically explosive. As a result, agency heads at WHO are reluctant to use this label before they have good numbers and more analysis on the disease. Right now, there is no need for any USA person to panic and hoard years of food or cleaning supplies, and buy up ammo. Common sense precautions seem the best way to respond FOR RIGHT NOW.

Why am I so calm about this disease? Because, globally there are reports of ~100,728 people ill from COVID-19. To put this in perspective, CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010. The difference between the COVID-19 deaths and these numbers is a very big difference, and is why some do not yet call COVID-19 a pandemic.

If Not Pandemic, Why Worry?

So if this is, so far, not a pandemic, what has public health scientists worried?

• There are over ~100+k infected worldwide, and increasing
• It has been located on every continent except Antarctica
• This is a new, unknown virus (always scary)
• There is unreliable data
• No reliable modeling forecast is available
• It has already mutated and there appears to be two strains now
• There are not enough hospital beds to house and isolate the sick
• Not enough supplies (like masks) to protect health workers
• We do not have enough test kits
• Vaccines are over a year into the future
• WHO: death rate is 1% for the flu compared to ~3.4% for COVID-19
• LiveScience: virus transmission is 1.3% for flu, and unknown for COVID-19; but USNews reports it is 2.2%
• LiveScience: risk of infection is 8% during regular flu season, unclear for COVID-19

WHO Counts?

WaPo and NYT are tracking the countries currently of concern, and provide updates on the virus effects. So for counts, I am relying on the WorldoMeter source for the counts below. These are the top countries that are experiencing deaths from the virus.

• Total dead 3,412
  • China: 3,042
  • Italy: 148
  • Iran: 124
  • South Korea: 43
  • USA: 14
  • Japan: 6
  • France: 9

Every time I re-edit this post, I check the numbers. Since the time I wrote the above paragraph, the numbers have jumped again. I will review the numbers one more time before I post, but they are growing each day.

Caution About Zombie Sources

So many things can influence our understanding of what is happening. The terrible influence of anti-vaxxers (including a nephew of mine), the President calling the whole thing a hoax, the White House deciding that news and data about the Coronavirus COVID-19 must be reviewed, essentially, by political appointees.

I am, therefor, not taking my news from US governmental or general web sources (Facebook, Twitter, etc.). I have, instead, turned to international and mainly US non-governmental agencies, and my usual science-based medical sources for basic data. I use national governmental sources only when they are in agreement with places I know are based in fact and science.

I think there is room to still maintain skepticism about some doom-and-gloom sources. The only reason I write this, is because accurate data is just not available. So while there are many questions, we have so little facts upon which to give answers.

The reasons for this lack of basic data are vast, but unfortunately includes the politics of nations. I have to admit, although I expect China and Iran to not be forthcoming, I have been disappointed with many US governmental scientists who appear to not be fighting back.

But, some brave scientists and public health officials are, so what cannot be in question is that we now have a global disease, and there are things we can do to prepare. In fact, one such hero is the much attacked Nancy Messonnier, Director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (part of CDC). She stated at the end of February, that the American public should now start to get prepared for the effects of this virus, and they should prepare for the worst case scenario.

General Non-Food Actions

Nothing will be 100% in preventing us from catching a virus. However, WHO and other international organizations are recommending certain actions to help contain this one.

• Cover your mouth and nose with a tissue when you have to cough or sneeze, then immediately dispose of the tissue
• In public places, or if you have an infected person at home, clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces using a regular household cleaning spray or wipes
• Get the flu shot and pneumonia vaccine, not that it will protect you from this virus, but it may lesson the chances of you getting sick, as hospitals may become overtaxed
• Have a 30 day supply of necessary drugs and medical equipment on hand in case of supply chain shortages (FDA reports there are already shortages of medicine, but will not say what)
• Limit travel if possible
• Limit exposure to large congregations of people when feasible
• Stay at least 3-6’ away from someone who is sneezing or coughing
• Do not go to work sick, self-isolate
• Wear a face mask if you are sick so as not to spread germs
• Only buy a few N95 masks for when you or family are sick, since we already have a shortage, and frankly health workers probably need them more than the general public
• Avoid shaking hands, air kisses, hugs, spitting, touching your face and nose
• It you do not have one, buy a thermometer
• If you have fever, cough, and difficulty breathing seek care immediately

In a global economy, the effects of distant lands can result in shortages of goods and medicines, hits to our economy, and job loss. As people get sick they do not go to work, business slows as more workers call in sick, fewer items are manufactured, goods are not shipped to other businesses, people are laid off, businesses close, and there are shortages. So we should always expect that in times of Zombies, there will be shortages. Expect that those shortages will be in many areas, including human and animal medicines, medical devices, general goods, and food.

Important Food-Related Actions

Washy, Washy, Washy

Home cooks should take normal precautions with food. Wash hands, wash food, clean counters, etc. Nothing unusual in these actions we should be doing anyway.

• Right now the FDA writes: We are not aware of any reports at this time of human illnesses that suggest COVID-19 can be transmitted by food or food packaging. However, it is always important to follow good hygiene practices (i.e., wash hands and surfaces often, separate raw meat from other foods, cook to the right temperature, and refrigerate foods promptly) when handling or preparing foods.

In fact, all the experts I read indicate that because the mode of infection is primarily respiratory, the chance of getting the virus from your food is extremely low. The act of cooking should kill the virus.

Going out to eat is different, as you are among people who may have the disease and are not showing symptoms yet. I imagine that as this gets worse, GrubHub will make a ton of money over deliveries. 

Grocery Stores

The WSJ reports Grocery Stores are stocking up with canned and boxed foods, hand sanitizers, and cleaning supplies in anticipation of mini-runs as people start prepping. Get things now while the supply chains are still loaded with products, but keep it reasonable so others can get their things too. Nothing indicates we need to hoard a year’s supply.

A friend who just went to Costco reports it was full of crazy people and empty shelves of long-shelved foods as people start prepping. Right now we in California are not in peak fire season, so many people seem to also be buying frozen foods to store in their freezers. Once we are in fire-danger, keep in mind power shut offs will be scheduled.

I went to some local, small stores yesterday and it was not so nuts, but there were higher than usual people buying canned and container foods. We do not need to overreact, but should cautiously prepare.

Food Supply Chains

Food supply chains are already feeling disruptions, but anticipate worse conditions ahead. While immediate concerns are about medicines and medical supplies, food is also shipped globally. Various world ports are already feeling the effects of slowing production. The Harvard Business Review expects peak shortages starting in mid-March, and they expect it to last months.

Since China is severely affected with this virus, I looked at what foods they are a major producer of, and Investopedia writes: that China is the most prolific producer of an impressive list of foods: rice, wheat, potatoes, lettuce, onions, cabbage, green beans, broccoli, eggplant, spinach, carrots, cucumbers, tomatoes, pumpkins, pears, grapes, apples, peaches, plums, watermelons, sheep milk, chicken, pork, sheep, goat, peanuts, eggs, fish and honey. This does not guarantee shortages in these foods, but keep an eye out.

Zombie Apocalypse Prepping

BusinessInsider reports people should prepare in advance and keep a two-week supply of food (including for pets), and a 30-day supply of prescription medication. The goal here is not to hoard or become a Zombie Apocalypse prepper, but to have enough on hand in case of future shortages. Frankly, for those of us living in earthquake and power-outage territory, we should be doing this anyway.

My Food List

I want to consider purchasing food items that won’t go bad quickly. So, I want enough food on hand that I do not have to leave my house, in case my family gets sick, or the virus starts to spread wildly.

Below is my list of what I am buying. There is nothing unusual on this list, it is food I want to have handy anyway, so I am just getting a bit more than usual. My goal is to keep enough food on hand to make 2 weeks worth of meals for me, my spouse, and our dogs; with enough to assist a neighbor or two.

• Have an unopened, extra bag of dried dog food on hand + treats
• Have extra cleaning supplies, laundry detergent, dishwashing liquid
• Dried fruit: blueberries, apples, mango slices
• Dried veggies: mainly mushrooms are what I want
• Packaged nuts + seeds (not from the bins, due to longer life)
• White rice, other grains or cereals like oatmeal
• Beans + lentils
• Peanut butter
• Tea + local honey
• Pomi tomato sauces, crushed tomatoes, etc.
• Pasta (from ramen to spaghetti)
• Some favorite energy bars
• Canned or jarred fish: anchovies, sardines, tuna, and salmon
• 2 gallons distilled water (for my CPAP machine)

If you consume meat or diary products, or have babies:

• Canned meats: Keystone Meats (chicken, beef, turkey, pork) with a 5 year shelf life is my preferred producer, these are great for making casseroles
• I would suggest purchasing Oat Milk, or other alternative milks, that are shelf stable
• I would stock up on baby food
• If breast feeding, I may also stock up a bit on formula, because I have not yet heard any comments on the effects of the virus to breast milk

This may change anytime soon, but so far, we in the USA are not anywhere near a point of pandemic panic. So my assessment TODAY is that the Zombies are approaching, they are in fact at our shores, but not yet at our doors.

—P

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NEWS: CNN reports that in 2017 the tiny waxworm was found to have the ability to chomp through plastic, even polyethylene, a common and non-biodegradable plastic currently clogging up landfills and seas. Now, after years of study, they understand that these worms are endowed with gut microbes that are essential in the plastic biodegradation process. But they are not a solution, because the larvae of the greater wax moth is considered a pest, because it acts as a parasite in bee colonies, eating away at the wax from honeycomb. However, it does point one way to a possible solution to our plastic issue.

TRENDS: Delish wrote that they anticipate that everyone will be a consuming insects by the next decade. I have tasted CHIRPS cricket-based chips and they were fine. Using ground cricket flour does not really make a difference to taste or texture; and adds complete, allergen-free protein. I have also fed my dogs insect-based treats and they liked them well enough, although they seem to like liver better.

SCIENCE: If you are into math, PopularMechanics has an article to explain, in mathematical terms, why round spaghetti curls when cooked. It is all based on considering spaghetti as a rod, and the new Rod Theory in math.