I was reading a news article in WaPo with the heading “Stealing to survive: More Americans are shoplifting food as aid runs out during the pandemic,” and the byline was: retailers, police departments and loss prevention researchers are reporting an uptick in theft of necessities like food and hygiene products. Which got me to thinking about the pandemic as we are about to move from the dreadful year of 2020 and into the hopeful year of 2021.
In many ways, the photo at the top of this post may seem incongruous to my written words below. For the reality is that the next year will continue to be bleak in too many areas. But, I want to celebrate turning a corner, for we have the chance to make 2021 better than this awful year we are about to leave behind. So I consider this photo a picture of hope for a better year ahead.
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White Middle Class Experience
2020: January to July
Life continued as normal, but whispering started to occur of a new disease cropping up in China. Then, other places in Asia and Southeast Asia. Then it shows up in Europe, with hints of becoming worldwide. Not yet a pandemic, but just waiting for WHO to announce it has crossed that threshold. I started to prep as we ended February.
The pandemic did not really impact my family until mid-March, when the University of California at Berkeley announced they were going to close the campus, and staff were to work from home. While working from home, I continued to receive a salary and benefits; so our family was one of the lucky ones, as there was no disruption in income or medical care.
Understandably, I received notice of the cancellation of all in-person cooking classes at Kitchen on Fire, where I had been apprenticing. By July, I had retired (planned before the pandemic) and started to receive a pension and associated medical benefits; again one of the lucky few that still receives a pension.
2020: August to October
For me, and my family, the impact of the pandemic has not been catastrophic. While a few family members and acquaintances have been diagnosed with Covid-19, none have been severely ill requiring hospitalization (thank goodness). My spouse and son, who have tested several times continue to be negative. No family member or friend has lost their job or health care, or has gone hungry.
So for my immediate family and friends (and fingers crossed), the pandemic has been more fear inducing, inconvenient, and frustrating. So by October, our pandemic-related experiences were:
- Curtailed social interactions, leading to some feelings of isolation.
- Increased boredom, while in-person social activities have been curtailed or closed.
- Weird working conditions with lots of Zoom meetings, emails, texts, and phone calls. But also, trying to go into work during times others will not be there.
- Reliant on our own cooking more, since restaurants have been closed or are minimally functioning.
- Complicated shopping due to masks, gloves, and sanitizers along with long line waits before we can enter stores (waiting 6’ apart of course).
- Increased costs of food and necessities, as disruptions have occurred in manufacturing, harvesting, and delivery (household items, food, cleaning or medical supplies, etc.).
- Personally, it has made me more worried about TP than I ever thought I would be.
While my immediate family did not experience catastrophe, we are well aware that the pandemic’s impact on us is not the same as its impact on millions of other Americans. For many people across the country, the pandemic has lead to:
- Severe illness requiring hospitalization due to Covid-19.
- Unimaginable numbers of lonely deaths.
- Business closures, leading to jobs lost, loss of income, and loss of job-paid medical benefits.
- Hunger and food insecurity.
- Long lines at drive through food banks.
- Inability to pay rent or mortgage, so living with the fear of homelessness during Winter.
- Teaching and entertaining kids at home.
- Fear of inability to pay bills (heat, water, garbage, student loans, etc.).
- Living on credit cards and gifts from family.
2020: November to December
This winter things started to change for the better due to two incidents:,
- The faster than ever creation of vaccines due to a new mRNA vaccine technique.
- The change in our Federal administration from Trump-Pence to Bidon-Harris.
In November the idea that vaccinations were forthcoming brought some optimism that the running wild pandemic might be tamed. So when December rolled around, and the first vaccines were given, there was downright joy. Of course, we have seen the vaccinations rightfully given to some medical staff, elder care residents and residential staff, but also it has been given to the rich or political influential people, while the rest of us have to wait our turn (1, 2, 3).
Biden-Harris won the presidential election. What makes me hopeful about the change, are the promises for a coordinated pandemic relief, nationwide free vaccinations, and support for states, hospitals, schools, businesses, and the hungry, jobless multitudes. They stated science and facts will return to our daily discussions, and reason will be used as we plan for and implement future policy and regulations. These attitudes will make a significant difference in what happens over the next few years, starting in 2021, and brings hope for next year.
At the same time, while we anticipate next years changes, our Winter pandemic lives continue.
- Our son cannot visit us for the holidays, so we are virtually celebrating.
- We see that the food lines are growing, as the need continues to expand.
- We share foods from our gardens with neighbors..
- People are gifting to each other kitchen cookware, utensils, unused food, clothing, and the like (Buy Nothing movement).
- Federal paid extended unemployment ends this month, while unemployment grows.
- Federal food funding of WIC and other programs have been cut back, while child and adult hunger grows.
- Federal cuts to Social Security, to make it harder for disabled to qualify, are being implemented, while financial needs grow.
- Federally, the Leader of the Senate continues to fight efforts to assist our country during a time of great suffering and need.
To sum up, this has been an amazingly sucky year; and I purposefully did not even mention our disastrous politics, the denial of science, people living in alternate realities, the rise of fascism and related violence, the attempt to unravel democracy, and the horrible exposure of racism and misogyny. (Okay I said it, but remember I am a food-related blogger so I need to keep my focus on food, not the complete list of what made 2020 an awful year.)
2021 a Year of Possibilities
Like I have said to my friends, this year in particular has been the suckiest year I have ever experienced; and that is saying a lot! So what indicators can we look at while we move into, what I hope is a better, 2021?
Vaccine + Prevention
The vaccine will still be under evaluation, but by 2021 there will be at least 2 vaccines available, maybe 3. There should also be a new home test, that will help us identify better, when we are infected.
- In 2021, life will continue to occur with masks, gloves, sanitation, distance, and “stay at home” and “do not congregate” warnings.
- Multitudes will continue to catch Covid-19 and people will continue to die at alarming rates.
- But we will start to have a sense that there is a “light at the end of the tunnel” as the vaccinations start to provide some sense of relief.
We are also learning more on how to take care of the hospitalized so that they can recover after intubation. Bottom line is that at least now, there is hope that we can figure out how to eliminate, or live with, the Covid-19 pandemic.
Medical Facilities + Staff
Hospitals will continue to be stressed in 2021, as will staff at those hospitals. I do not see the stresses easing until late 2021 at the earliest. On the bright side, there will be more treatments And with Federal political changes, it is possible the government will coordinate our pandemic responses to improve outcomes and will be more supportive of national medical insurance.
- I expect medical costs will go up, so the need for medical insurance will become even more an economic necessity.
- PPE shortages will happen again, as we run through what we have, but the Federal government can initiate American-made PPE and medical equipment will grow to meet demand.
- Medical staffing will become even more of an issue as people burn out, but we see a growth in people studying to become nurses, doctors, nutritionists, food service workers, and other specialists (1).
Unemployment + Jobs
Federal assistance in the form of extended unemployment are about to expire in December, and there are no assurances it will be renewed, although negotiations are continuing. I expect unemployment will continue at high rates, so long as we cannot open businesses (2). Luckily, the new Federal administration will support legislative actions for the unemployed, so there is hope.
Jobs that are available right now, are the dangerous ones (in terms of exposure to Covid-19). Often these jobs are low paying, have minimal to no benefits, some are gig workers delivering food from stores or restaurants, warehouse workers, farm workers, personal shoppers, fast food workers, etc. But on the positive side, they do exist.
Business + Restaurants
The 2020 reality that will leak into 2021 is that politics will operate as usual. For businesses this means:
- FT reports: Many large companies and financial institutions have received all the credit and funds they need, with no Fed time limits on payback.
- Many large tech companies that employ gig workers have been able to offload the cost of unemployment benefits to taxpayers.
- While smaller businesses, representing the majority of job creation, have received some funding, disbursements have been slow and disorganised, say some SMEs, activists and others.
- Many small enterprises have found themselves ineligible for loans for bureaucratic reasons, or held to higher employment standards than some bigger businesses.
- Additionally, we already know that big, industrial agri-businesses receive governmental subsidies, while smaller farms do not.
Small businesses, especially restaurants and small farms, are not really being supported right now, and we will see many more shutter permanently next year. Congressional and Federal negotiations are occurring now, but the usual National Party politics will continue to split funding (3, 4).
- QSRMagazine reports that from 2010–2018, restaurants accounted for one out of every seven new jobs.
- Our pandemic experience was verified by a April-May 2020 survey from TDAmeritrade, indicating 78% report saving money by not eating out and cooking in more.
- Not surprisingly, the Restaurant org reports job losses in restaurants are higher than any other industry during the pandemic; 500k jobs lost in March, and 5.5M jobs in April (seasonally-adjusted).
- QSR also expects 100k restaurant closures in 2020.
Fast Food is Thriving
The one restaurant that is seeing, and projecting, continuing growth is the fast food market, whose drive-thrus have managed to operate within the pandemic guidelines safely, by closing walk-ins and upping car-based pickups, or deliveries.
- Fast food restaurants are expected to keep growing at 2% annually through 2020.
- BusinessWire expects a growth rate of 4.6% from 2020 to 2027, in part because they appear to be one of the food businesses that has figured out to serve under pandemic constraints.
- 50 million Americans eat fast food every day.
Shoplifting + Hunger
Shoplifting increases in general during times of crisis and food insecurity. The items being stolen a lot now, are baby food, basic food, and OTC medical items.
- After 11 September 2001 shoplifting increased 16%
- After the 2008 recession it increased 34%
- After March 2020 it has jumped even higher
- Regional newspapers, including the Kansas City Star, report that during the pandemic food delivery boxes are now being stolen directly off people’s porches.
According to a Census Bureau survey, taken in late October and early November, ~1 in 8 American adults reported they ”sometimes or often” did not have enough food in a given week. So, nearly 26 million adults have reported going hungry, record highs since the government agency first began collecting such data in 1998.
According to the USDA, ~54M Americans will have struggled with food insecurity and actual hunger by the end of 2020. This is, a 45% increase from 2019, and is expected to grow in 2021.
Federal Food Aid
Due to Republican pressures, food aid programs (SNAP, WIC) are being reduced now, and there will be a struggle to reinstate the funding as some politicians start their expected turn toward fiscal conservatism, now that a the Federal administration will change (5).
AmericanProgress writes: more than 7 million households across the country who received the maximum in fiscal year 2018—those already deemed to be the poorest and most in need by SNAP eligibility guidelines—received no extra aid as the economy plummeted into a recession. Despite challenges to the interpretation, almost 40 percent of all SNAP households are left without a needed increase in federal food assistance even while facing an unprecedented rise in food insecurity.
Food Banks + Federal Programs
Food banks and food pantries are being stretched to breaking points in terms of need, and their ability to acquire and hand out food. FeedAmerica writes:
- From the beginning of March through the end of October, food banks nationwide distributed an estimated 4.2 billion meals to our neighbors facing hunger in the United States.
- More than 80 percent, or 4 in 5, food banks are serving more people now than they did a year ago.
- As a result of the pandemic, Feeding America estimates 1 in 6 Americans could face hunger over the coming year.
Federal food programs that were set up to buy fresh produce, dairy and meat from Farmers and sent to food banks are about to expire this month.
- WaPo: Farmers to Families Food Box, has provided more than 120 million food boxes during the pandemic and is already running out of funding in many parts of the country.
Food banks and pantries have changed from smaller facilities serving towns and a smaller population to large scale drive-thrus that are serving thousands of people a day with larger amounts of food during this pandemic. The large scale systems will continue (and grow) so long as the pandemic is generating the need. They are not anticipated to shrink until employment starts to pick up.
Projections for 2021
I believe 2021 will be a domino year, where each step relies on the previous step, and as the steps pile on we will be higher and further along than we are now. But “recovery” is not a 2021 fix, it will take years to come, and depends upon what more we learn about Covid-19; will we be able to eradicate it, or do we have to live with it.
Congressional and state politics will continue to be unreasonably difficult, and out of step with national and local need. The USA will finally have national coordination of pandemic relief, nationwide vaccinations, and enough PPE. But, Federal support (for food banks, direct food aid, small business aid, etc.) will continue to be a political fight between people who feel a sense of public service, duty, compassion, and the need to assist; and people who feel compassion enables laziness and entitlement. The result, short term, is the loss of Federal support of food programs, job retention, school safety, unemployment funding, and halts on evictions. I am hopeful for resumption of these programs as the new Federal administration starts to take over.
With Federal support, while hunger and food insecurity will continue, the food banks will be better able to meet the need. Every economist I have read has indicated our economic recovery will take years. So, no matter how much better society becomes, I do not anticipate food insecurity and hunger will return to lower levels until years from now. But with anticipated Federal support, we should be able to better meet the need when agribusinesses, restaurants, and non-profits work together to provide not only basic food but also ready-meals. These actions will also boost jobs in these hard hit businesses.
Our society will continue to be divided along amazingly harmful lines, but I hope social pressure will enforce pandemic safety. There will be continuing difference between science denying anti-vaxers, and those trusting science and the efficacy of vaccines. This will lead to delays in managing the pandemic and opening back up, as too many people may not take the vaccine. But schools and businesses may require (mandate) vaccinations to attend, which should help.
Certain people will continue to deny the pandemic exists, while others will be suffering and dying from their lack of caution. This will lead to too many people taking unnecessary risks, and infecting others. But with a new Federal administration, we should see more marketing and pushes supporting these minimal safety measures.
People will have to continue using the recommended protocols like masks, hand washing, and physical distance; but a minority will continue to fight against these public health actions as “restricting their personal freedom, or liberty”. Which just shows that the American myth of individualism can be deadly when what we need is community action. Peer and family pressure can help, while also not supporting this deadly idea.
When all school workers and children can be vaccinated, schools will start to safely reopen. The good thing about this is not just that students will get back to learning and being socialized, but that food lunch programs will ramp back up, important to reducing childhood hunger. Opening schools will also bring back jobs (2018-19 schools employed 6,616,569 people), reduce child abuse and will help alleviate many other family stresses.
When Covid-19 infection drops, businesses will start to reopen. Steps will be taken to open carefully, and slowly. These will be “dipping toes in the water” progress, as we try and assess, before we take other steps towards reopening and congregating once again. (I also figure that when businesses start to reopen, we will find many will keep the “work from home” ethic, for it also saves businesses money from renting or buying facilities, insurance, equipment, and the like.)
In response to the pandemic, some newish food-related businesses will continue to grow. The growing farm-to-home food delivery businesses will continue, as people have created a habit that is both convenient and efficient. Likewise, as we continue to work from home, the retaurant-to-home food delivery systems will continue to be used. Fast food restaurants will continue to grow, with expanding tastes to include more Asian and Latin American foods.
But many of us have changed by this experience as well. With my middle-class circumstances, I will continue many of the food-specific habits I have now acquired. My family will continue to wear a mask when leaving my house, keep my distance from others, and wash my hands when returning to my home after shopping. The farm-to-home organic food delivery I currently use will continue, so I limit the amount of my time spent shopping. But also I expect to continue to buy food from restaurants, for home delivery, at least once a week as a way to support them. However, home cooking will continue to be the main source of our meals. My gardening will continue, some of the food to give away, and some to augment what is delivered to our home. I will continue to cook for neighbors and friends in need, and when feasible will donate money to food programs.
2021 New Years Resolution
I will not make any personal New Year’s Resolutions for 2021. The only thing I wish for, is simply to have my community survive another year healthy, and secure in finances and food. I feel that this is the most powerful wish one can have for 2021.
But wishing alone is not enough, I feel the need to offer financial support to organizations, and my time to directly help where I can. As a famous newscaster has said, speaking about politicians, “watch not what they say, but what they do”. That also goes for us who have financial and food security as well; documenting and acknowledging the situation of our neighbors and community is not enough, we need to help make change.
—Patty
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