We have a system of incredible efficiency, [but now] the legendary bounty of the American supermarket is being challenged by two things,” Pollan says. “Initially, it was challenged by a demand crisis. At the beginning of the pandemic, we had people hoarding, as they do before a hurricane or a blizzard, and this was emptying supermarket shelves, which is a phenomenon that feeds on itself. But then we moved into a second stage — and that’s where I think we are now and increasingly are going to be — which is a supply problem.
Michael Pollan, author of “The Omnivore’s Dilemma” as quoted by PRI
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Anticipated 2021-22 Shortages
As expected, the pandemic of 2020 has stormed into 2021, and current projections indicate effects of the pandemic will be with us for a while, at least through the next few years. I will start by discussing the 2021-22 food shortages that are projected to occur and what is causing them. Then I move into American food chain flaws that have been exposed by the pandemic-related problems and shortages we anticipate.
Slow Gasoline Sales Leads to Beer Shortage
We have been driving less, due to Pandemic-related, stay-at-home public health orders, so the demand for gasoline has fallen by 37% from the previous year (1). Because gasoline demand has dropped, Ethanol, which is blended into the America’s gasoline supply, has had its production fall as well, by 13% in April, but now is at >30% (2).
What is critical to my story is that a byproduct of ethanol production, is carbon dioxide (CO2). This carbon dioxide is critical to meat processing, used in the creation of dry ice, critical to the creation of beer and soda, and is used in other industrial manufacturing . In fact, nearly half of the all the CO2 used in these businesses come from ethonol production (3).
Here is how the shortage and increasing costs of CO2 is effecting our food.
- Beer brewers are paying 25% more for carbon dioxide (4) so costs are going up. Soda and seltzer makers are in the same boat (5).
- CO2 is also used to soften mineral hard water, so peoples drinking and household water usage is effected.
- Co2 is used to make dry ice, so this effects frozen foods, as dry ice is part of its distribution system; it keeps delivery vans cold, and frozen food frozen (6).
- In England, crumpet production (oh my!!) has fallen from the lack of CO2.
- The meat industry is also affected, as CO2 is used to process, pack, preserve and ship meat (7).
2021: Beer, soda, and all CO2 drinks will become more costly. Many brands will limit production to the versions that sell the best. Large companies will use their power to get more of the ingredient, leaving smaller brands out of the process. So expect your local smaller brews and drinks to be gone for the shelves for most of the year. We may see the same thing in cuts of meat and frozen foods. As meat processing workers get sick, fewer people will be able to chop up the meat, so certain cuts will be limited, in favor or larger cuts that require fewer workers. Frozen food will be limited as dry ice is harder and more expensive to get so expect fewer options as businesses focus on the best sellers among their options.
Closing Bars Lead to Aluminum Can Shortage
A large amount of beer and soda was sold, pre-pandemic, via restaurants, bars, and other hospitality services. But now that those are all closed, these drinks are being sold retail to consumers. In order to meet the unexpected growth i demand, more drinks packaged in aluminum cans is required. This outsized, unusual demand for aluminum cans has created a shortage in cans. Specifically, the USA is down 10B aluminum cans this summer (8).
It is not a problem with the raw material, it is more the lack of capacity to produce enough cans to meet the increased demands. Manufacturers indicated to USAToday that they are ramping up to build three more facilities, but that will not come online fast enough to meet current and expected need.
In many ways, this is the same issue we had, and have with toilet paper. The unexpected switch in demand from wholesales to retail direct to consumer sales led to unanticipated shortages. In toilet paper the size is different for institutional sales (larger width) than for retail sales. So they had too much of one kind, and not enough of the other. And this made since, given that pre-pandemic, the institutional sales were larger than home sales. For beverages, beer and soda to wholesale outlets were predominantly held in kegs or large metal containers. But retail sales were in plastic, glass and mostly aluminum cans.
So the system failure is that industries have created two separate types of containers; one for wholesale or industrial sales and the other for retail or consumer sales. The whole production lines for each are different and cannot overlap, so you cannot easily switch production or modify the sizes or containers to support demand when quick changes are required.
2021: Expect drinks or food packaged in aluminum cans to cost more. Options will be reduced as manufacturers focus on their best sellers, so they can best meet the demand.
China Tariffs Leads to Canned Corn Shortage
About 28k USA farmers (in all states) planted their sweet corn fields in advance of the pandemic. So all the canned corn we pulled from the shelves in Spring 2020, were harvested in the Summer of 2019. Once manufacturers realized canned sweet corn were flying off the shelves, as people stocked up with pantry foods, the fields had already been set and sown. So the Summer 2020 corn has already been picked and canned, and the fields prepped for next year.
As a result, we finished up all the warehouses in the Spring last year, and the new cans will not be enough to replenish the shelves and meet the growing need. But this is not just about the lack of sweet corn, it is also about not enough of the steel-tin containers.
Raw materials (steel and tin) from China are scarce, in part due to Trumps Tariffs against China, which has also raised the price of metals. Another reason for lack of materials is the reduction on Chinese exports due to the pandemic. So we do not have the materials to make the cans for canned food, and have a lack of required-by-law ”made-in-China” labels that go on those cans. This has caused a disruption in manufacturering canned foods and increased the costs at a time when people are continuing to loose jobs
- The Wall Street Journal reported trucking companies pared down their fleets, so there are less trucks and drivers available to transport food.
- Wholesale manufacturers and distributors are running out of empty cans to pack nonperishable foods that so many Americans are buying in bulk (9).
- We anticipate depleting canned sweet corn this year (10).
- AARP writes: In August one-third of stores were reporting out-of-stocks on soup for at least a part of the day.
- Other canned food that is at risk are soups, canned chilies, beans, spam, tuna, and other veggies.
2021: Expect drinks or food packaged in steel-tin cans to cost more. Options will be reduced as manufacturers focus on their best sellers, so they can best meet the demand. So reductions will be felt in soups, canned veggies, canned meats, and canned fruit.
More Home Time Leads to Seeds Shortage
As I already documented regarding Urban Gardening, more and more people are waiting out the pandemic, food shortages, and loss of income, by gardening in their back yards. By gardening, people have something productive to do while stuck at home, growing food has augmented what they can buy in grocery stores, and have helped feed one’s family when money is tight. But with the increased sales in gardening, plants and seeds are running out and people are finding empty shelves.
- Various seed companies are refusing new orders or running out of seeds as Americans restart their Pandemic Victory Garden (11).
- But local groups are starting to share seeds so find a local gardening group to learn how to garden, and for help on locating seeds.
2021: I expect the garden movement to continue, and in fact will grow. More people will join local seed cooperatives, as local gardeners start to share seeds among themselves. The national, and worldwide shortage of seeds will continue and only local help will be able to meet local needs.
Google Searches Leads to Baking Supply Shortage
Google reports on their food-related searches for 2020. The #1 search was for sourdough bread, #5 was a particular cooke, #8 was how to make a hamburger bun, and #10 was a healthy banana bread (12). The pandemic has also led to an increase in cookbook sales, and more people baking than our parents time (13). Heck, King Author flour, saw sales increase over 2000% back in March 2020 (14) and it has continued into this year. These facts prove that 2020 has experienced an increased interest in baking at home.
- TheAtlantic reported: In mid-March, flour shelves thinned out, but mostly didn’t empty, as people were stocking up on all kinds of staples they’d need to stay home for a few weeks of regular cooking.
- The real flour rush began in late March, as it became clear that states’ initial stay-at-home orders would likely be extended.
Related to that is we have, and will continue to see shortages in baking materials. In the Spring 2020 we saw a yeast shortage, specifically, we learned that by the beginning of May, yeast sales jumped 410% year over year (14). The issue is not a lack of ingredients, it is a matter of timing; yeast is a live thing that needs time to grow, and that cannot be rushed.
Other Expected Food Shortages
Spam is reducing the variety of their meat tins to just a handful of the most popular, since they are have can and meat supply issues. Tuna fish in cans also flew off the shelves, so they are doing the best they can given the shortages.
Favorite snack foods may be missing some of their flavors as they focus more on producing their best sellers only (15).
Expect some cuts of meat to be limited, and plenty of other cuts. It is an issue of labor, as people get sick.
Cheese will be limited as well, but mostly they should be more costly as demand grows. Seems during this pandemic we have turned into major cheese eaters.
Some stores are reporting that they are putting limits on how many food storage items consumers can buy. Examples are plastic freezer bags, plastic containers, canning glass jars and lids, etc.
Oh, and expect more TP and cleaning supplies to be limited.
American Food Chain Flaws
I remember at the start of the pandemic there were stories of panicked consumers racing to stockpile food, paper products and cleaning supplies. It caused more stress, as people got the impression of scarcity, which was reinforced as they saw a few empty shelves. The panic quickly escalated to outrageous and fear-based hoarding. From all I have seen, America’s food supply has remained pretty robust. But it has also exposed our large, industrial, and interconnected food system‘s flaws.
Meat Processing + Packaging
Early on (April 2020) the big agribusinesses dealing with meat processing and packaging started its own food scare by buying an ad in several major papers, speaking to Trump, about the possibility of meat scarcity. I wrote about this earlier in a post. But the point here is that the weakest link, during a pandemic, is that the processing and packaging plants are not built for human safety but for speed. So as people get sick, the plants have to shut down.
2021: This will continue until the rate of vaccinations reaches a critical point of general population immunity. Meanwhile, vaccinations must be given, as a priority, to not just plant workers but their families as well. In addition, the plants need to be redesigned so future pandemics to not turn these factories into virus hot-spots.
Farms + Farming
On farms the weakest link is all along the line where humans are located. A pandemic can spread among the poor, unsupported farmworkers working in the fields, processing and packaging plants. It shows up in the drop off of available transportation drivers to get the food to the plants or stores. It also shows up in the number of available food inspectors.
2021: This will continue until the rate of vaccinations reaches a critical point, and must be given, as a priority, to not just farmworkers but their families as well. What this shows, which is an ongoing issue, is how much our food systems relies on poorly paid migrants and low wage earners that have no medical insurance, no work guarantees, and no sick leave.
Large Agribusinesses
For decades American agricultural businesses have consolidated into fewer and larger companies, while smaller family or coop farms have shuttered. For example, Since 1968, the number of slaughtering facilities dropped 72% in 52 years. I have written a bit about this, while discussing Regenerative Agriculture.
This change to ever larger farms means our food growing and harvesting is not easily able to switch in response to any crisis. Smaller, local farms are better able to respond to unusual circumstances. The easiest example was how difficult it was to move food originally planned for wholesale (restaurants, hotels, schools) to retail (sold to consumers) or even food banks. Instead what we saw was dairy farmers dumping milk, farmers burying food into their soil, etc.
Repurposing Foods
The required packaging and labels for food to wholesale sources versus retail sources are different. Wholesale food containers are also generally much larger, say 50# bags of flour versus a 5# to 10# retail bag. If companies cannot switch fast enough, the food goes to waste.
2021: What this has meant, and will mean, is that some farmers that exclusively catered to certain wholesale outlets, had and continue to have no one to sell to as those outlets shuttered due to the pandemic. Businesses are going to have to rethink and reconsider the differences between wholesale and consumer sales and why they are packaged differently. Making any changes however, are longer term investments and would require a major change in processing and packaging facilities.
Global Shortages
In a global pandemic, anything that calls for imports from other countries becomes a problem. Is that other country going to worry about getting those cans to us so we can handle our food packaging? Or are they going to focus on their own nations needs? I think it is clear that if our food packaging requires cans from China, and they have the pandemic, AND there is a tariff war with them, we have a food problem.
2021: With the change in Federal Administration there should be changes in agreements between countries that may alleviate that aspect of can shortages. But really we need a global inoculation against the virus before we get back to the numbers we had pre-pandemic. Is it possible we can up the number of cans we produce in the USA? Yes but would take investment.
Food Banks
When jobs are closed, income is affected, when money is not coming in how will families buy food, keep their housing, pay utilities, and cover their health insurance? We are having to quickly expand our food in these pantries, and organize how to provide for hundreds of thousands of people.
WaPo wrote that over the next 12 months Food Banks will be over 8M meals shy of need.
Grocery Stores Shelves
What Americans may find is that they may not find their favorite brand, but will find other brands. So if the XYZ Corn Chip is not on the shelf, there might be ABC Corn Chips with similar taste.
2021-22: Food varieties will be more limited while manufacturers focus on best sellers during packaging shortages. Stores will do the same thing, so instead of 50 breakfast cereals, you may have only 25 to choose from (if in the USA).
We also can see cleaning and disinfecting supplies will continue to be limited as manufacturers are producing as much as they can. Worldwide the shortage is problematic and is seen to continue into early 2022.
Food Delivery Innovations
A lot of the innovations that have been heavily utilized during the pandemic are great, but by their nature are expensive and not equally available for use by many.
Heated-Medium writes: Market-driven innovations, for example, usually benefit most those who can afford to use the new apps, higher-priced products, or home-delivery charges, widening gaps in food access and nutritional well-being between the better off and poor. Similarly, market innovations are most accessible where the highest prices can be charged, diminishing their capacity to benefit those who face the highest health risks.
But others have worked to tie in local farmers to increase farmer-to-store arrangements that everyone can benefit from directly. Another arrangements is restaurant-to-store arrangements where restaurant workers make meals that can be bought or picked up for reasonable costs (in terns of restaurant costs).
Governmental Failures
~38M Americans (adults and children) lived on the financial edge, before the pandemic, living with hunger or food insecurity. These were primarily low wage earners (working poor), people of color, single mom families, and children But as people lost their jobs due to the pandemic, 17M additional people all of a sudden also needed food help (1). This group started to include people who never thought they would need assistance, including people of the middle class.
At the same time the Federal Government showed an acute inability to to join forces to address the issue of providing food and financial support to their constituents in the country. This was not a “both sides” issue, but was easily identified as a problem with one of the major political parties. Without a well formed safety net, many more people die.
Public Health Failures
The relationship of food to health is well known. Issues of malnutrition, obesity, high blood pressure, high cholesterol, and diabetes are well known to be associated with diet. Rather than dealing with these issue at the core, food insecurity, food + cooking education, and limited food choices, where it is cheaper to handle; American governmental agencies and politics prefer to only deal with the medical symptoms once they show up and are the most costly to deal with.
Bottom line is that we humans have to do better.
—Patty
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